Is New York City FC Good?
Umm, yes! No! Errm, maybe? It can be hard to evaluate a soccer team over the entirety of a season, especially when the club waits until the summer to address some very big holes in the roster. But now with the signings of Aiden O’Neill (winter), Nicolas Fernandez Mercau (summer), and Raul Gustavo (summer), New York City FC has finally addressed the more pertinent needs of the squad and the results have reflected that. Since the Leagues Cup, New York City FC has a record of six wins and four losses. The team is trending in the right direction, at the right time, with potentially the right players. So, why is it feeling so hard to accept that the boys in blue are maybe not so underdog favorites for a trophy this year?
The Good - Pascal Jansen
As Chris Campbell of The Outfield said on September 17th:
Coach Jansen was given a relatively unfinished roster from the start of the season. In spite of that, there has been significant improvement in the team, both through better usage of its important U-22 signings and in the homegrown development and trust. Agustin Ojeda and Julian Fernandez have found significantly more joy under Jansen adding a combined five more goals and assists (G/A) this season so far than last season under Nick Cushing. Other homegrown players like Justin Haak, Johnny Shore, and Seymour Reid have also been featured in a more prominent role for the club adding three goals and four assists.
The tactical flexibility that Pascal has shown is also commendable. He has players like Justin Haak playing as a hybridized centerback/midfielder, while having centerbacks like Birk Risa and now new arrival Raul Gustavo as positionally flexible left-sided defenders. He’s been inventive with Nico Fernadez Mercau as well, taking shifts as a false nine and an inverted right winger. This also sometimes morphs into a system where Maxi can step up onto the front-line in a pseudo two-striker look. All of this leads to a little bit more organized chaos than before, leading to unpredictability. This is especially good in tournament style play, where over one game there might be three or four different ways the Pigeons could line up to win.
Bulletproof Mentality:
Something that coach Pascal Jansen mentioned in his very first media appearance was the desire for a “bulletproof mentality” as the team needed to get consistent results throughout the regular season. The team struggled last year with unstable performances, and in the beginning of this season that looked to be true again. However, something changed this year that’s difficult to measure outside of emotional growth. New York City FC is tied for the second highest points from losing positions this season. That’s up fifteen positions from last year. This stands as evidence of the complete mentality reset that Pascal is hoping to instill. New York City FC also drops points rarely. In the twenty-one times the boys in blue have led, they have sealed a victory in seventeen of them. This means they have only dropped points four times, which is better than last season where they dropped points on seven occasions.
However, it’s not always good:
New York City FC has still had inconsistency throughout the season in its own new ways. Specifically, New York has struggled against teams below the playoff line. This season the Pigeons are a very strong 11-3-5 (1.89ppg) against teams above the playoff line currently and 6-2-6 (1.43ppg) against teams below it. That’s a difficult statistic to reconcile and while there are explanations (better teams play more open soccer, etc…) the inconsistency is there. New York City is also still one of the youngest teams in MLS with an average age of 24.3, and an attacking core average age of 22. That could also explain some of the inconsistency. The good news for the Pigeons however is that in the playoffs, they will only have to play teams above the playoff line, which they seem to be good at doing!
Game Management:
Another cause for concern is the sometimes questionable substitutions and the complexity of the tactics Pascal has employed in this very brief run of form. Exemplified by the Inter Miami game, Pascal subbed off his DP Centre back and arguably defender of the year Thiago Martins and pushed Aidan O’Niell into a position he self-admittedly “rarely plays” to try and change the formation. This backfired immensely. As City Football Group’s own Pep Guardiola might be able to tell you, sometimes over-tinkering can lead to some bad results in tournament play. This is an isolated incident, however in a highly leveraged tournament like the MLS Cup Playoffs, no one can make mistakes, including managers when choosing their tactical setups.
Cautious Optimism:
Form is always a great indicator of success moving into the MLS Cup Playoffs. Teams that limp in or get bye weeks in old formats of this tournament always struggled to get results, while teams that come in hot tend to find success. The Pigeons are hot right now, only suffering the same conference losses to Inter Miami on a heavily rotated squad and supporters shield champion Philadelphia Union away since Leagues Cup. This team has clearly found itself in the closing third of the season. That, combined with a coach who seems to have the boys in blue motivated, and some new pieces that have seemed to fit in immediately, New York City FC could very well be contenders for MLS Cup. So, is New York City FC good? Sure! Could they get bounced in the first round of the playoffs? Absolutely! Is it exciting? You betcha! And that is the fun part of MLS. Getting some of the final pieces for this team a little earlier in the season may have inspired a bit more confidence for their chances, but it’s good to be cautiously optimistic about this team moving into the playoffs.
